Op 19 november 2025 wordt door het NiRV een webinar georganiseerd, verzorgd door Prof. Dr. Bernard Schwetzler en Dr. Maximilian Schreiter.
Het onderwerp is “Growth and profitability assumptions in terminal value calculations – pitfalls and sanity checks”
De plaatsen zijn beperkt tot 25 deelnemers.
Terminal values are frequently considered to be a black box in DCF valuation models: On the one hand they are important by contributing regularly more than 60% to the current company value, on the other hand estimating a infinite growth rate for a firm starting five years from now is close to reading tea leaves. No wonder that growth conditions applied in corporate valuations are a regular pain point in price negotiations of corporate transactions.
In this webinar we want to look deeper into the problems and potential solutions of terminal value calculations. We start by highlighting a robust and straightforward way to detect and sort out unreasonable growth assumptions: Resting on the (reasonable) idea to align growth of earnings with growth of corresponding assets, the model from Gordon-Shapiro (and its extension by Goedhart et al.) allows to check, whether the capital invested earns its cost of capital and growth is creating shareholder value. We will also show some limitations of these models and discuss ways to overcome those. Also applying the logic of the model to the APV valuation model popular in the Netherlands requires a bit shoehorning.
A popular way to rationalize growth assumptions is to assume that they start at a higher level at the beginning of the TV phase and then are sequentially reduced by applying an annual “fade factor”. We will show that the straightforward application of fade rates on cash flows yields erroneous results. We introduce a valuation model based on a EVA concept allowing to “fade out” excess returns and invested capital. Finally we discuss benefits and limits of “football fields”, highlighting the combined impact of variations of growth rate and cost of capital on terminal values.
Prof. Dr. Bernhard Schwetzler
Prof. Dr. Bernhard Schwetzler holds the chair of financial management at the HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management. He was a research fellow and visiting professor at various international universities such as Purdue University, INSEAD Fontainebleau and EADA Barcelona. Prof. Schwetzler has published in numerous national and international journals on topics related to company valuation and financing theory (including Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Corporate Finance, Zeitschrift für Betriebswirtschaft), works as an expert in valuation issues for courts and supports in this function also companies and investors. As a member of the advisory board of Value Trust S.E. and the scientific advisory board of the Federal Association of German Equity Investment Companies in Germany, Prof. Schwetzler maintains close contact with the practice of company valuation and company transactions.
Dr. Maximilian Schreiter
Maximilian Schreiter is onderzoeksassistent en promovendus aan de leerstoel Financieel Management aan de Hogeschool van Leipzig (HHL). Zijn onderzoeksgebied is de toepassing van echte optietheorie bij het optimaliseren van financierings- en investeringsbeslissingen, evenals bij bedrijfswaardering. Voordat hij bij HHL kwam, werkte hij voor Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. Gedurende deze periode adviseerde hij consumentengoederen en retailbedrijven in Midden- en Oost-Europa en West-Afrika bij verschillende projecten.
16:30-19:30 uur (incl. pauze).
De deelnamelink wordt enkele dagen voorafgaand per mail verzonden.
De kosten voor deelname als NiRV-lid bedragen € 300,- per persoon excl. BTW. Overige deelnemers, geen lid van het NiRV, betalen € 400,- per persoon excl. BTW.
Voor deelname aan deze workshop worden 3 PE punten toegekend aan Register Valuators.
